This estimate nevertheless includes hundreds more civilian deaths than the government’s official count, amounting to a higher total than other data collection efforts to date.More than 1 million people are thought to have been displaced by Boko Haram as civilians flee their homes fearing violence, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). ACLED data therefore provide a robust but necessarily conservative estimate of the impact of the drug war on Philippine civilians. The estimate based on ACLED data is lower than some of the broader estimates noted by other sources because incidents in which drug suspects were armed, based on reports of police injuries, are not included in ACLED’s civilian fatality count while such victims may meet other definitions of a ‘civilian,’ they are not considered ‘civilians’ per ACLED methodology. This is 25% higher than the government’s September 2021 count of 6,201, even by ACLED’s conservative estimate 3 ACLED’s civilian fatality estimate includes cases in which civilians deemed to be drug suspects were killed by (1) government forces, such as the police or military (2) anti-drug vigilantes, assumed to have ties to the state ( Amnesty International, 31 January 2017 Human Rights Watch, 5 March 2017 ICC, 14 June 2021) or (3) anonymous or unidentified armed groups, often assumed to be supporters of the government, tacit supporters of the government’s drug policy, or even police themselves as part of “secret death squads” ( The Guardian, 3, October 2016).ACLED data are updated weekly and freely available for download. ACLED currently estimates that at least 7,742 civilians have been killed in the drug war since 2016.
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